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We derive a set of stylized facts on the effects of non-systematic fiscal policy in the four largest countries of the Euro area. We find relevant differences across countries in the effects of non-systematic fiscal policy, and sub...
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We derive a set of stylized facts on the effects of non-systematic fiscal policy in the four largest countries of the Euro area. We find relevant differences across countries in the effects of non-systematic fiscal policy, and substantial uncertaintyabout the size of these effects. Yet, in general, expenditure shocks are usually rather ineffective in increasing output growth, and can require deficit financing Tax policies also appear to have minor effects on output, but usually tax increases do nothave negative effects,. Disaggregating expenditures and receipts yields some interesting results, in particular increases in government consumption decrease output in all countries, while social benefits can increase it.
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The author introduces a simulation of counter-cyclical interventions that highlights important issues surrounding the practice of government intervention. The simulation provides experiential insight as to why economists have long...
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The author introduces a simulation of counter-cyclical interventions that highlights important issues surrounding the practice of government intervention. The simulation provides experiential insight as to why economists have long debated the degree of persistence exhibited by disequilibrating shocks and connects this debate to discussions about policy lags. In addition, the author explores the related issues such as unintended procyclical stimuli created by the political business cycle, the importance of central bank independence, the role of automatic stabilizers, and the value of forecasting. The simulation reminds students of the real-life complexities behind curve-shifting textbook problems and cautions that even optimal strategies may fail over short time horizons.
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In this work, strategies to devise an optimal feedback control of probabilistic Boolean control networks (PBCNs) are discussed. Reinforcement learning (RL) based control is explored in order to minimize model design efforts and re...
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In this work, strategies to devise an optimal feedback control of probabilistic Boolean control networks (PBCNs) are discussed. Reinforcement learning (RL) based control is explored in order to minimize model design efforts and regulate PBCNs with high complexities. A Q-learning random forest ( QLRF) algorithm is proposed; by making use of the algorithm, state feedback controllers are designed to stabilize the PBCNs at a given equilibrium point. Further, by adopting QLRF stabilized closed-loop PBCNs, a Lyapunov function is defined, and a method to construct the same is presented. By utilizing such Lyapunov functions, a novel self-triggered control (STC) strategy is proposed, whereby the controller is recomputed according to a triggering schedule, resulting in an optimal control strategy while retaining the closed-loop PBCN stability. Finally, the results are verified using computer simulations. (c) 2022 The Franklin Institute. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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That fiscal policy may have limits has been known and has been discussed since 1936, when Keynes published The General Theory in the middle of the Great depression. The criticism of countercyclical fiscal policy should have change...
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That fiscal policy may have limits has been known and has been discussed since 1936, when Keynes published The General Theory in the middle of the Great depression. The criticism of countercyclical fiscal policy should have changed over the years, because of economic, social and structural changes that have taken place in the economies of the countries. This paper focuses on changes in the socio-economic ecology of countries and argues that those changes are likely to have reduced the effectiveness of traditional countercyclical fiscal policy.
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We examine the effects of monetary and macroprudential policies in the Asia-Pacific region, where many inflation targeting economies have adopted macroprudential policies in order to safeguard financial stability. Using structural...
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We examine the effects of monetary and macroprudential policies in the Asia-Pacific region, where many inflation targeting economies have adopted macroprudential policies in order to safeguard financial stability. Using structural panel vector autoregressions that identify both monetary and macroprudential policy actions, we show that tighter macroprudential policies used to contain credit growth also have a significant negative impact on macroeconomic aggregates such as real GDP and the price level. The similar effects of monetary and macroprudential policies may suggest a complementary use of the two policies at normal times. However, they could also create challenges for policymakers, especially during times when low inflation coincides with buoyant credit growth.
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We explore to what extent official interest rate changes can potentially in a procyclical manner impact different financial cycle indicators (credit/GDP, debt service ratio, house prices and stock market indices). We test this on ...
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We explore to what extent official interest rate changes can potentially in a procyclical manner impact different financial cycle indicators (credit/GDP, debt service ratio, house prices and stock market indices). We test this on data covering 1995-2016 in 21 countries and the euro area using the Concordance index and Monetary policy procyclicafity ratio. Results show that this was not a widespread phenomenon, but there was significant heterogenenity across countries. The procyclicality of interest rate changes was usually higher when financial cycle gaps were increasing and lower when they were decreasing. On average, central banks in several larger economies were running potentially less procyclical monetary policy than those in the smaller ones. The resulting propensity of conflicts between achieving price and financial stability by central banks was low, as only in 10% of the cases the objectives were conflicting (usually when inflation was below the target and the credit cycle was in an expansion phase).
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After the 2008 international financial crisis, monetary authorities worldwide have assigned more importance to financial stability, in addition to price stability. The objective of this paper is to assemble a Dynamic Stochastic Ge...
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After the 2008 international financial crisis, monetary authorities worldwide have assigned more importance to financial stability, in addition to price stability. The objective of this paper is to assemble a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with financial frictions to investigate how discretionary shocks on monetary and macroprudential policies are transmitted to banks and real sector of the economy and how these policies interact between themselves. We simulated the effects of shocks on interest rate, reserve requirements, and capital requirements on the dynamics of the Brazilian economy. We also performed a sensitivity analysis of the transmission mechanisms to alternative settings of the monetary and macroprudential policies. The major findings indicated that, despite the recessionary effects on credit and output, contractionist shocks that are fully repassed to the cost of credit lead to increase in spread and banking profits, raising capital buffer and favoring financial stability. From a monetary perspective, although the transmission of interest rate shock is effective on inflation, shocks in either reserve requirements or capital requirements also affect output and inflation. Thus,' monetary and macroprudential policies might be used as supplement for achieving economic and financial stability.
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We argue that changes in the monetary and financial regimes over the last twenty years or so have been subtly altering the dynamics of the economy and hence the challenges that monetary and prudential authorities face. In particul...
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We argue that changes in the monetary and financial regimes over the last twenty years or so have been subtly altering the dynamics of the economy and hence the challenges that monetary and prudential authorities face. In particular, the current environment may be more vulnerable to the occasional build up of financial imbalances, i.e. over-extensions in (private sector) balance sheets, which herald economic weakness and unwelcome disinflation down the road, as they unwind. As a result, achieving simultaneous monetary and financial stability in a lasting way may call for refinements to current monetary and prudential policy frameworks. These refinements would entail a firmer long-term focus, greater symmetry in policy responses between upswings and downswings, with greater attention to actions during upswings, and closer coordination between monetary and prudential authorities.
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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether fiscal policy may be a complementary instrument to monetary policy in the macrostabilization process. Design/methodology/approach - The authors developed a dynamic syst...
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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether fiscal policy may be a complementary instrument to monetary policy in the macrostabilization process. Design/methodology/approach - The authors developed a dynamic system with two linear differential equations in order to verify if an active fiscal policy can be compatible with macroeconomic equilibrium in three monetary policy regimes (conservative, alternative and hybrid). The authors also use numerical simulations because it is impossible to extract analytically full conclusions from the theoretical model. Findings - The results suggest that fiscal policy can be a useful tool for macroeconomic stabilization; the counter-cyclical role of fiscal policy is compatible with dynamic equilibrium only if the monetary authority is not lenient towards inflation; and under an active fiscal policy a hybrid monetary regime is preferable to a conservative one. Originality/value - This paper offers a theoretical contribution to explicate the macroeconomic implications of fiscal policy.
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A growing theoretical literature advocates the use of countercyclical capital control policy, that is, the tightening of restrictions on net capital inflows during booms and the relaxation thereof during recessions. We examine the...
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A growing theoretical literature advocates the use of countercyclical capital control policy, that is, the tightening of restrictions on net capital inflows during booms and the relaxation thereof during recessions. We examine the behavior of capital controls in 78 countries over the period 1995-2011. We find that capital controls are remarkably acyclical. Booms and busts in aggregate activity are associated with virtually no movements in capital controls. These results are robust to controlling for the level of development, external indebtedness, and the exchange-rate regime. They also obtain around the great contraction of 2007. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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